Playoff Preview: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

George Halas and Vince Lombardi at Lambeau Field in 1964

So we’ve finally reached the end of what Chicago sports radio has referred to affectionately as “Meatball Week,”  and I’m pretty sure that you’ve heard that there’s a pretty big game that’s being played on Sunday.  I, like all other Chicagoans have completely bought into the hype, read every article about every matchup and heard every interview with every player that’s ever played in this rivalry. So instead of adding my own checklist of why this NFC Championship game is “the biggest game in Chicago sports history,” let’s focus on the matchup that’s going to be on the field.

The Packers come into this game billed as “the hottest team in football,” and it’s hard to argue against that label.  Aaron Rodgers comes into this game having thrown six touchdowns against no interceptions in his two playoff games this year, and the Packers put 45 points on the NFC’s number one seed at home last weekend.  Chicago also cruised into the conference championship game, beating up on Seattle for three quarters before allowing them to pad their stats late in a 35-24 win.  The Bears have been riding this wave for awhile since they’ve won eight of their last 10 games, and Green Bay isn’t too far off, winning their last four after losing two consecutive games when Aaron Rodgers went down with a concussion in December.  So with two seemingly similar teams in two seemingly similar situations, who’s got the edge?

Let’s take a look at the keys to the game:

1.        Special teams is king.

It goes without saying that Devin Hester is the best and most feared kick returner in history.  (Go ahead, I dare you to argue.) His contribution is going to be a deciding factor in this game.  Hester has averaged 17.1 yards per punt return this season, and he ran one back for a touchdown against the Packers earlier this year.  While many teams have tried directional kicks to keep the ball away from Hester, that strategy also can play into the Bears hands because even if Hester doesn’t touch the ball the Bears usually can get good field position.  Special teams has been an Achilles heel for Green Bay this year, and if this group can’t lineup capable players on their coverage units, Chicago could put up more points than everyone thinks they will.

2.        Killer corners

The cornerback tandem of Charles Woodson and Tramond Williams has probably been the best in the NFL this season.  Woodson is the reigning defensive player of the year and Williams very quietly put together a Pro Bowl caliber season this year.  Since Williams has 3 interceptions in the Packers two playoff games so far, that secret is out of the bag and the Bears had better be careful when throwing to his side of the field.  As for Chicago’s defensive backfield, they can be pointed to as one of the biggest reasons that the defense has been so exceptional this season.  While cornerback Charles Tillman has been a mainstay since 2003, there were whispers going into this season on whether “Peanut” was still good enough to cover every team’s best receiver after a disappointing 2009.  Tillman responded with 5 interceptions and three forced fumbles, and his play against receiver Mike Williams in the Divisional round against the Seahawks had big-time player written all over it.  On the other side of the field, Tim Jennings took over the starting position from Zac Bowman in week 4 and never looked back.  His ability to make tackles is what makes him an integral part of the defense and his and Tillman’s ability to blanket WR’s is what has helped the defensive line generate pressure.  Whichever unit gets their hands on more balls is going to decide which QB has a bad day.  And when turnovers turn into points things can get out of hand quickly.  Just ask the Atlanta Falcons.

3.       Play Blackjack

With both defenses playing at the top of their game, this could easily be a slugfest.  Conventional theory gives the Packers an advantage because of a)Aaron Rodgers and b) Green Bay’s potential to be a high powered offense.  But you can’t easily forget that the last game of the regular season ended in a 10-3 Packers win, and if the Chicago offense had been able to do anything on that fateful night four weeks ago, then the Packers may not have ever had the chance to play in this historic game.  If either of these offenses can muster a two score lead it’ll put the other team in a bad place in trying to play comeback against a stingy defense.  That could especially mean trouble for Jay Cutler, who’s thrown nine interceptions in four games against the Pack, and his INT with ten seconds remaining sealed the final regular season game.  While it may seem like a stretch with Chicago’s defense (or a slap in the face considering the Packers offense), both teams magic number needs to be 21.  Anything more than that can be considered running up the score.

So who wins?  You can’t deny the extremely high level that Aaron Rodgers is playing at, and while I don’t see him throwing a stinker, I think the Packers will have trouble finding the end zone.  The Bears haven’t had too many barn burners either and this game will be no different.  My head is telling me that Green Bay is playing too well to be stopped, but my heart (and my home) is in Chicago.  It’s gonna be a cold, windy, brutal afternoon next to Lake Michigan, and The Battle of Chicago (as I’m now calling it) is going to be one for the ages.  Neither team reaches blackjack, but the house wins with seventeen.

Bears 17, Green Bay 13

Playoff Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears

Rematch weekend continues when the Seahawks come into Chicago to try and knock off the Bears for the second time this season. In their week 6 win against the Bears, Seattle aggressively blitzed Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler, leading to 6 sacks and an 0-12 mark on third down for the Bears as they struggled to find a rhythm on offense. But there was a few things working against Chicago in this game that the Seahawks won’t be able to exploit this time around.

For starters, Lance Briggs is in the lineup on Sunday. Its easily forgotten that Chicago’s other All Pro linebacker didn’t play in that first matchup, and its easy to see the difference he makes for this defense when he‘s on the field. Another difference about today’s game is that Chicago has seemingly cured what was ailing them in terms of protecting the quarterback. During a four game game stretch which included the game against Seattle Cutler was sacked 19 times and even missed a game with a concussion. Since that time, offensive line coach Mike Tice has solidified the pass protection and motivated the offensive line to keep their QB standing upright.

The running game will be the other key to remember in this matchup. In that loss earlier this season, Chicago ran the ball only 14 times (two on scrambles by Jay Cutler) for 61 yards. In their last nine games, the Bears have taken a much more balance approach on offense with 258 rushing attempts vs. 276 passes, and they’ve gained over 100 yards on the ground in eight of those final nine games after eclipsing the century mark only twice in the first seven games.

So here’s my prediction: Although Seattle may be riding a wave of momentum after last weekend’s emotional win against New Orleans, the Bears have two things working in their favor. Number one, the Bears have zero players listed on their injury report, which is virtually unheard of at this point in the season. Even though the Saints injuries should not have played an important role in that ridiculous loss last week, when you’re missing your top playmakers it’s a given that you’re going to struggle, no matter who you’re playing against. The other thing working in Chicago’s favor is their defense, which has reverted back to “Monsters of the Midway” form. The Bears have given up more than 20 points to an opponent only four times this season, and despite Matt Hasselbeck’s renaissance, the Seahawks are not going to hang 41 points on this defense at home.

Seattle gets no respect; from me or the Bears. Chicago covers the spread in a win by two scores.

The bigger they are....

I remember the day I saw the movie Transformers 2. Even though sequels are historically subpar to their originals, I still felt like the movie had all the components of a summer blockbuster. Non stop action, explosions, big name stars and a franchise that had been so popular for so long that there was NO POSSIBLE WAY that it could miss. The same actors had played these same roles before and played them great, so all they really had to do was pickup where they left off after the first movie. I mean, could it get any easier? It was like the bases were loaded for them, the relief pitcher was on the mound and all I had to do was sit back and watch them knock it out of the park. Then, I actually watched the movie. What unfolded right before my eyes was a sham, an embarrassment, a performance so poor that not even the sight of Megan Fox all hot and sweaty (again) could stop me from turning off that train wreck of a film less than an hour into it. And yesterday afternoon was like déjà vu’ all over again.

The defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints, went into the game against Seattle yesterday with it all laid out for them. Yes, they had struggled at times this season, fighting injuries to their key players and winning in spite of interceptions from their All-World quarterback Drew Brees. But this is exactly what the doctor ordered.  A first round playoff matchup with a sub-.500 team that they had blown out only weeks earlier. “Breesus” and the Saints would have no trouble carving up a team that won only seven games this year and had literally gotten blown out in all nine of their losses, right? Wrong. New Orleans gave up 41 points to the Seahawks en route to suffering one of the most humiliating losses in franchise history. I’m sure every NFL analyst in the country could do nothing but shake their heads in disgust at the way Matt Hasselbeck, playing with one hand, threw four touchdowns against a defense that was finished the regular season ranked 4^th in the league against the pass.

How the Saints can score 36 points and still lose a playoff game to a losing team is something that I will never understand. I’m not sure, maybe this falls on head coach Sean Payton for not having his team prepared to show up for a playoff game. Or maybe it was defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who didn’t come up with a solid enough scheme, and a veteran QB like Hasselbeck just took advantage of the opportunity.  Or maybe, just maybe the blame should fall on the players. They obviously took this game and this team lightly. They were slow to the ball, easily fooled and the tackling that was on display during Marshawn Lynch’s back-breaking TD run was enough to make every high school football coach in America puke.

Disappointing? Of course. Every loss is disappointing for a team, especially in the playoffs. But this was downright pathetic. Who Dat Nation, meet the Transformers generation. Hopefully next time around we all will have something worth watching.

Playoff Preview: New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks

Ok, the most intriguing thing about this matchup is….. absolutely nothing. Yes, the Seahawks won their division. Yes the Seahawks are a playoff team. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that they are still a losing team. This team went 7-9 during the regular season and all of their losses came by at least fifteen points. That means that Seattle has gotten blown out more often than they’ve won.

To be fair, New Orleans is going to be shorthanded in the running game. Starting running back Pierre Thomas and backup Chris Ivory have been lost for the year, and Reggie Bush has never been the type of runner to be effective carrying the ball twenty five times in a game. However, Coach Sean Payton doesn’t have an awful lot of options, even after signing two running backs off the street this week. Look for Bush to get the bulk of the carries with Julius Jones spelling him in certain packages. If either of those guys get hurt….then Deshawn Wynn will get his chance I guess.

Matt Hasselbeck is 4-1 at home in the playoffs, and teams historically have trouble playing in Seattle. The weather can get really bad and Qwest field has caused 100 false start penalties over the past 5 seasons so the noise level is obviously ridiculous. Add a cross country flight to the equation and I can see why a trip to the great northwest can be pretty miserable.

So for my prediction - talent trumps jetlag, and sorry 12^th man, but this matchup isn’t close enough for you to make a difference. Saints win in Seattle. By at least 15 points.